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Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by 3 points in Virginia, with Biden’s approval level among commonwealth voters at 36%
CONTACTS:
L. Douglas Wilder
Distinguished Professor
Phone: (804) 827-0776
Email: ldwilder@vcu.edu
Robyn McDougle
Associate Dean of Research and Outreach
Phone: (804) 721-6703
Email: rdmcdougle@vcu.edu
Cost of living remains the top issue impacting voting, with reproductive rights ranking second *Note: The surveys used to compute these results were completed before the July 13, 2024, assassination attempt on former President Trump.*
Today, the Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs released the results of its most recent Commonwealth Poll, conducted between June 24 and July 3, 2024. The release comes just days after the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee in this year’s presidential election. There is no information available that would indicate how that event would impact the results of this survey.
>>View the complete poll results
"I think the results show that Virginia is truly a ‘battleground state’ for the presidency. The drop by 20 points (to 46%) of Black Virginians since December, where 67% supported Biden, should be concerning relative to turnout affecting congressional races, in particular in competitive districts 7 and 2.”
– Governor L. Douglas Wilder
That said, with 111 days before Election Day, President Joe Biden trails former President Trump in Virginia 39% to 36%, according to the Summer 2024 Commonwealth Poll. President Biden’s approval hovers around the same support number, at 36% of voters approving of his job as president.
With regard to former President Trump’s criminal conviction in May, over half of voters (53%) say they are less likely to vote for him. In particular, almost half of Independents (45%) in Virginia say they are less likely to vote for him.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s approval rating fell by about 4 percentage points, and his disapproval rating rose 3 points, since the Wilder School’s Winter 2023 Commonwealth Poll in December, revealing a drop in his overall popularity.
With regard to the U.S. Senate race in Virginia, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine has a double-digit lead over Republican opponent Hung Cao (49%-38%).
Voters cite the rising cost of living as the top issue about which they will make their decision to vote, with women’s reproductive rights and immigration ranking second and third, respectively. Related to immigration, over half of Virginia voters (52%) see the country’s immigration system as a major problem.
L. Douglas Wilder, 66th governor of Virginia, said, “I think the results show that Virginia is truly a ‘battleground state’ for the presidency. The drop by 20 points (to 46%) of Black Virginians since December, where 67% supported Biden, should be concerning relative to turnout affecting congressional races, in particular in competitive districts 7 and 2.”
Governor Youngkin approval
Half of Virginians (50%) approve of how Governor Youngkin is handling his job as governor of Virginia, with 34% disapproving. This is a 4-point drop in approval and a 3-point increase in disapproval from the Winter 2023 Commonwealth Poll. Governor Youngkin’s approval varies across demographics of Virginians. Democrats were more likely to disapprove of Governor Youngkin’s performance (62%) than approve (23%), while Republicans were more likely to approve (78%) than disapprove (10%). Around half of Independent Virginians approve (49%), with 21% disapproving. Approval ratings also fluctuated based on household income. The highest approval was among those earning less than $20,000 annually (71%) or earning between $70k and $100k (61%), while the lowest approvals were in three income categories between $20k and $70k (43% average). Governor Youngkin’s approval was higher among Black Virginians than in the winter poll (51% versus 36%), and among Hispanic respondents, 35% approve of his performance compared with 51% of non-Hispanic respondents.
Felony conviction of former President Trump
Virginians were asked whether former President Trump’s conviction by a jury on 34 felony counts of falsification of business records in the first degree makes them more or less likely to vote for him for president. Over half of respondents (53%) are less likely to vote for him, while 31% say they are more likely. Around half of Independents (45%) say the conviction makes them less likely to vote for former President Trump, with 25% saying it increases their likelihood. The results were heavily polarized by political party. For Democrats, just 4% are more likely to vote for former President Trump in light of the conviction, with 90% saying it makes them less likely. Conversely, just over 6 in 10 Republican respondents say the conviction makes them more likely to vote for former President Trump, with 18% saying they are less likely.
President Biden approval
Just under 4 in 10 Virginians approve of President Biden’s job performance (36%), with 58% disapproving. There has not been much change since the Winter 2023 Commonwealth Poll. Approval is extremely polarized by political party, with 69% of Democrats approving of President Biden’s performance and 25% disapproving – compared with just 8% of Republicans approving and 90% disapproving. Disapproval has increased significantly among Independent Virginians, with 68% disapproving and just 20% approving – compared with 37% disapproving and 30% approving in the winter poll. Over half of Black Virginians (54%) approve of President Biden’s performance, while female respondents (40%) were somewhat more likely to approve than male respondents (32%). Hispanic respondents were also more likely to approve than non-Hispanic residents (46% versus 36%).
Presidential election intentions
When respondents were asked whom they would vote for if the election for president were held today and they had to decide now, former President Trump, the Republican, slightly leads, with 39% saying they would vote for him, compared with 36% who would vote for President Biden, the Democrat. The difference between the two is less than the margin of error for this poll but sees a shift towards President Trump compared to VCU Wilder School’s December Commonwealth poll which had President Biden leading President Trump 43% - 40%). For the remaining candidates, 9% of Virginians in the new poll say they would vote for Robert Kennedy Jr., 2% for Jill Stein and 1% for Cornel West. Three-quarters of Democrats say they would vote for President Biden, while 82% of Republicans would vote for former President Trump. Six percent of both Democrats and Republicans indicate they would vote for Robert Kennedy Jr. Also, Independents are most likely to vote for Robert Kennedy Jr., with 27% supporting him. Black Virginians are more likely to vote for President Biden (46%), but this number has dropped by 20 points since the winter poll, when 67% supported him.
Senatorial election intentions
Virginians were also asked whether they would vote for Sen. Tim Kaine, the Democrat, or Hung Cao, the Republican, if the election for U.S. senator were held today. Nearly half of Virginians (49%) indicate they would vote for Senator Kaine, with 38% supporting Hung Cao. Preferences were heavily polarized by political party, with 89% of Democrats favoring Senator Kaine and 81% of Republicans favoring Hung Cao. Nearly half of Independents (48%) say they would vote for Senator Kaine.
Most important voting issues
Virginians were then asked to cite the most important issue impacting how they vote. Overall, the three most important voting issues for Virginians are the rising cost of living (31%), women’s reproductive rights (23%) and immigration (12%). For Democrats, the most important issues are women’s reproductive rights (42%) and the rising cost of living (20%). For Republicans, the most important issues are the rising cost of living (43%) and immigration (23%). For Independents, the rising cost of living (36%) and women’s reproductive rights (17%) were the top two issues. Female Virginians were more likely to view women’s reproductive rights as the most important issue (34%) compared with male Virginians (12%).
Concern for illegal immigration at the southern border
Poll respondents were also asked whether they consider illegal immigrants crossing the southern border of the U.S. to be a major problem, minor problem or not a problem at all. Overall, over half of respondents (52%) consider it a major problem, 33% a minor problem, and just 10% say it is not a problem. This issue is another that is strongly polarized by political party. Democrats largely consider it to be a minor problem (56%), while 86% of Republicans and 47% of Independents consider it a major problem. There are also large differences based on the race of respondents, with white individuals (62%) most likely to say it is a major problem while approximately half of Black respondents (51%) say it is a minor problem.
About the VCU L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs
Ranked in the top 15% of graduate schools of public affairs in the nation by U.S. News & World Report, No. 39 in the top 40 Graduate Schools of Public Affairs, No. 6 in Homeland Security Programs and No. 33 in Public Management and Leadership Programs, the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University advances excellence in governance and promotes evidence-based public policy in Virginia and beyond. The school offers an array of graduate, post-baccalaureate, and doctoral programs in virtually every policy area, including criminal justice, homeland security and emergency preparedness, public administration, public policy and administration, and urban and regional studies and planning. Additionally, the Wilder School is home to a robust Centers and Institutes for Public Policy that provides applied research in the areas of state and local government, social equity, and leadership and a range of services to clients in state and local government, nonprofit organizations, businesses and the general public. Learn more at wilder.vcu.edu.
ABOUT THE VCU WILDER SCHOOL COMMONWEALTH POLL
For nearly three decades, the VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll within the Centers and Institutes for Public Policy has been an important bellwether for policymakers in Virginia and beyond on a range of topics, including voting intentions, economic and workforce development, education, housing, public health, public safety and racial equity. The Commonwealth Poll is a featured 2020 Presidential Election Poll by CNN, approved based on a rigorous review of methodologies and assumptions that ensure that CNN-cited polling entities are employing the gold standard in public opinion research.
Methodology
The Summer 2024 Commonwealth Poll, sponsored by Virginia Commonwealth University, obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 809 adults, ages 18 or older, living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (202) and cellphone (607, including 426 without a landline telephone). The survey was conducted by Responsive Management. Interviews were conducted in English from June 24, 2024, to July 3, 2024. In telephone survey research, design weights are often employed to reduce bias, correcting for differences in the probability of selection due to non-response and non-coverage. The sample was weighted to match Virginia’s adult population, which was the primary sampling unit. Two sampling frames were employed: one frame representing those with a listed landline and a second frame consisting of RDD cellular numbers. A two-stage weighting procedure was used to weight this dual-frame sample. Weighting was accomplished using the Anesrake package, which implements the American National Election Study (ANES) weighting algorithm. The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ±4.81. A combination sample was used consisting of a listed landline sample and a cellular random digit dial (RDD) sample to represent all adults in Virginia who have access to either a listed landline or cellular telephone. Both samples were provided in their proper proportions according to state telephone type usage by Marketing Systems Group, a leader in providing research-based statistical samples. The cellular RDD sample was prescreened for disconnected numbers.
As many as seven attempts were made to contact every landline telephone number, and as many as five attempts were made to contact each cell phone number. Calls were made at different times of day and different days of the week to maximize the chance of contacting potential respondents. Each telephone number received at least one daytime call when necessary. In addition to the five attempted phone calls for each cell number, cell numbers that were not reachable in five attempts were sent a message via Short Message Service (SMS) with one final request to participate in the study. The SMS message contained a link that would lead the
respondent to the survey. Of the 607 surveys completed with cell sample, 114 were completed using the link provided in the SMS message. For the landline sample, the computer questionnaire instructed interviewers to ask to speak with the youngest adult currently at home. Selecting respondents in this manner has been shown to result in data that closely mirror the population in terms of age when combined with 2 Responsive Management cellular sampling. For the cellular sample type, interviews were conducted with an adult who answered the telephone. Response rates were computed according to American Association for Public Opinion Research standards 1 . Thus, the response rate for the landline sample is 7.0 percent. The response rate for the cellularsample is 8.5 percent.