News
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 46% to 36% in Virginia, Cost of living is the top concern for voters (38%) heading into election season
Virginia Commonwealth University
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACTS:
L. Douglas Wilder
Distinguished Professor
Phone: (804) 827-0776
Email: ldwilder@vcu.edu
Robyn McDougle
Associate Dean of Research and Outreach
Phone: (804) 721-6703
Email: rdmcdougle@vcu.edu
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 46% to 36% in Virginia
Cost of living is the top concern for voters (38%) heading into election season
RICHMOND, Va. (September 11, 2024) - Today, the VCU Wilder School released the results of its most recent Commonwealth Poll, conducted from August 26 to September 6, 2024. As Virginians begin casting ballots this month, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 46% to 36%.
The cost of living remains the highest concern for Virginia voters (38%), followed by reproductive rights (21%) and immigration (10%). Relatedly, Virginians are split on who they trust to handle the economy, with 38% of voters trusting Kamala Harris and 37% trusting Donald Trump.
The VCU Wilder School is currently conducting another poll, following the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump, to compare voting intentions after the September 10th debate.
Presidential election intentions
When asked who they would vote for if the election for president were being held today and they had to decide immediately, Kamala Harris leads 46% to 36% among respondents. This marks a stark change from the VCU Wilder School Summer Poll on July 16, 2024, which showed Donald Trump (39%) with a slight lead over President Joe Biden (36%).
Regarding party affiliation, over 80% of Republican respondents are voting for Donald Trump, while 81% of Democratic respondents are voting for Kamala Harris. Among Independents, Donald Trump leads Harris 26% to 19%, with 22% saying they would not vote and 11% undecided. In comparison to the VCU Wilder School Summer Poll, 27% of Independents had expressed support for Robert Kennedy Jr., and 16% for Donald Trump. This shift suggests that many former supporters of Robert Kennedy Jr. are now backing Donald Trump.
Most important voting issues
Overall, the three most important issues for Virginians are the rising cost of living (38%), women’s reproductive rights (21%), and immigration (10%). These priorities remain unchanged from the VCU Wilder School Summer Poll. For Democrats, the most important issue is now the cost of living, a shift from women’s reproductive rights being the top issue in the previous poll. The cost of living continues to dominate for Republicans and Independents as well.
Trust in the economy
Respondents were also asked whether they trusted Kamala Harris or Donald Trump more regarding the economy. Voters were nearly tied, with 38% trusting Kamala Harris and 37% trusting Donald Trump, while 18% trusted neither. Among Independents, 36% trust Donald Trump, and 15% trust Kamala Harris, with 34% trusting neither.
“These latest poll results show Harris’s focus on her support of women’s reproductive rights resonated well with respondents,” said L. Douglas Wilder, 66th Governor of Virginia and spokesperson for the poll. “They also showed that Trump did not improve his numbers relative to who would best handle inflation, the economy, and health care. It seems that Harris gained from the debate, while Trump’s numbers were in decline.”
Access the full results of the latest VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll here.
About the VCU L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs
Ranked in the top 15% of graduate schools of public affairs in the nation by U.S. News and World Report, No. 39 among the top 40 Graduate Schools of Public Affairs, No. 6 in Homeland Security Programs, and No. 33 in Public Management and Leadership Programs, the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University advances excellence in governance and promotes evidence-based public policy in Virginia and beyond. The school offers a range of graduate, post-baccalaureate, and doctoral programs in virtually every policy area, including criminal justice, homeland security and emergency preparedness, public administration, public policy and administration, and urban and regional studies and planning. Additionally, the Wilder School is home to robust Centers and Institutes for Public Policy that provide applied research in the areas of state and local government, social equity, and leadership, offering a range of services to clients in state and local government, nonprofit organizations, businesses, and the general public. Learn more at wilder.vcu.edu.
About VCU and VCU Health
Virginia Commonwealth University is a major, urban public research university with national and international rankings in sponsored research. Located in downtown Richmond, VCU enrolls more than 28,000 students in 233 degree and certificate programs across the arts, sciences, and humanities. Twenty-two of these programs are unique in Virginia, many crossing disciplines across VCU’s 11 schools and three colleges. The VCU Health brand represents the VCU health sciences academic programs, the VCU Massey Cancer Center, and the VCU Health System, which comprises VCU Medical Center (the only academic medical center in the region), Community Memorial Hospital, Children’s Hospital of Richmond at VCU, and MCV Physicians. The clinical enterprise includes a collaboration with Sheltering Arms Institute for physical rehabilitation services. For more, please visit www.vcu.edu and vcuhealth.org.
About the VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll
For nearly three decades, the VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll within the Centers for Public Policy has served as an important bellwether for policymakers in Virginia and beyond, covering a range of topics, including voting intentions, economic and workforce development, education, housing, public health, public safety, and racial equity. The Commonwealth Poll was a featured 2020 Presidential Election Poll by CNN, approved after a rigorous review of methodologies and assumptions to ensure that CNN-cited polling entities adhere to the gold standard in public opinion research.
Methodology
The Fall 2024 Commonwealth Poll, sponsored by Virginia Commonwealth University, obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 813 adults, ages 18 or older, living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted via landline (203) and cell phone (610, including 431 respondents without a landline). The survey was conducted by Responsive Management. Interviews were conducted in English from August 26, 2024, to September 6, 2024.
In telephone survey research, design weights are often employed to reduce bias, correcting for differences in the probability of selection due to non-response and non-coverage. The sample was weighted to match Virginia’s adult population, which was the primary sampling unit. Two sampling frames were used: one for listed landlines and another for random digit dialing (RDD) cellular numbers. Both samples were provided in the correct proportions according to state telephone type usage by Marketing Systems Group, a leader in providing research-based statistical samples. Non-productive numbers were identified via CELL-WINS, a non-intrusive real-time screening process that identifies active and inactive numbers, and removed from the sample.
A two-stage weighting procedure was used to adjust this dual-frame sample. Weighting was conducted using the Anesrake package, which implements the American National Election Study (ANES) weighting algorithm. The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ±5.03. A combination sample of listed landline and cellular RDD numbers was used to represent all adults in Virginia with access to either a listed landline or cellular telephone. Both samples were provided in the correct proportions according to state telephone type usage by Marketing Systems Group. The cellular RDD sample was prescreened for disconnected numbers.
Up to seven attempts were made to contact each landline number, and up to five attempts were made to contact each cell phone number. Calls were made at different times of day and on different days of the week to maximize the chances of contacting potential respondents. Each telephone number received at least one daytime call if necessary. In addition to the five phone call attempts for each cell number, unreachable cell numbers were sent a Short Message Service (SMS) message with one final request to participate in the study. The SMS message contained a link to the survey. Of the 610 surveys completed from the cell phone sample, 97 were completed via the link provided in the SMS message. For the landline sample, interviewers were instructed to ask for the youngest adult at home. Selecting respondents this way has been shown to yield data that mirrors the population in terms of age when combined with cellular sampling. For the cell phone sample, interviews were conducted with the adult who answered the phone.
Response rates were computed according to American Association for Public Opinion Research standards. The response rate for the landline sample was 7.0%, while the response rate for the cellular sample was 8.8%.